Could bird flu cause a Covid-like pandemic

Source:Daily Mail    Published:2023-03-10     Hist:

It's still unclear if the parent caught the virus from his daughter or if they were both exposed to the same reservoir - likely an infected bird. But it could be the first example of human-to-human spread since an outbreak in Hong Kong in the late nineties.

That outbreak petered out, however, so even if the virus has once again started to spread between people, it does not necessarily mean it will cause an epidemic in humans.
There is also a question about how efficient the frighteningly lethal H5N1 strain really is as a pandemic virus. It kills around half of the people it infects, which greatly limits how widely it can spread. Dead people do not make good hosts for a pathogen with the sole goal of spreading and multiplying. 
Here's everything you need to know about the bird flu strain: 

Like all flus, the virus is spread primarily through droplets in the air which are breathed in or get into a person's mouth, eyes or nose.

Health experts work during spray disinfectant at a village in Prey Veng province Cambodia - where a father has been diagnosed with bird flu.

What is H5N1?
H5N1 is a highly infectious strain of flu that causes severe respiratory disease in birds and humans.
It is highly contagious among birds and poultry and has a near-100 percent case fatality rate.
There have been fewer than 1,000 cases in people, but it has killed roughly 53 percent of the people diagnosed with the disease.
The H5N1 strain was first detected in Scotland in 1959, but this outbreak was contained to chickens. 
The virus was first detected in humans in 1997 in Hong Kong, thought to be contracted from chickens in a live poultry market, better known as a 'wet market', where live and dead animals are often kept in squalid conditions and slaughtered on order.
Wet markets have also been linked to Covid's origins, with the first cluster of cases in 2019 traced back to a small radius near the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan.
There has only ever been one human bird flu case in America, which occurred last year in April. The patient's only symptom was tiredness for a few days. They were treated with the flu antiviral drug oseltamivir and made a full recovery. 
Infected birds can spread H5N1 to other birds through their saliva, nasal secretions and feces.
They can also catch it through contact with surfaces that are contaminated with the virus.
Before the cases in Cambodia, only one case of H5N1 in humans had been detected this year. Cases in humans have been rare in recent years.

A worker catches chickens at a market in Phnom Penh on February 24, 2023. The father of an 11-year-old Cambodian girl who died earlier in the week from bird flu tested positive for the virus, health officials said.

Bird flu infections among people are rare, however, they can happen when enough virus gets into a person’s eyes, nose, or mouth, or is inhaled. 
People with close or prolonged unprotected contact (not wearing respiratory and eye protection) with infected birds or places where sick birds or their mucous, saliva, or feces have contaminated might be at greater risk of bird flu virus infection.
It is unlikely that a human could catch the virus from eating poultry and game birds because it is heat-sensitive. This means the meat won't contain the virus as long as it is properly cooked.
An infected bird might appear lethargic, stop eating, have swollen body parts, and cough and sneeze. Other birds might die suddenly without any symptoms.
The symptoms in humans are a high fever (often above 100 F), a cough, sore throat, muscle aches and general feeling of malaise.
Additional early symptoms could include pain in the abdomen and chest and diarrhea.
It can quickly develop into serious respiratory illness, including shortness of breath and difficulty breathing and pneumonia. People may also suffer an altered mental state or seizures.
Should I be worried?
Yes and no. 
There have been mounting fears over the past year as the strain tore through the world's domestic bird and poultry populations.
More than 15million animals have been struck down and killed by the virus itself, while governments have collectively culled more than 200m worldwide to curb the virus' spread, including 58m in the US alone.
But those fears reached new heights today as the father of a girl who died from the virus was also diagnosed with the disease.
The World Health Organization (WHO) described the situation in Cambodia as 'worrying', in a noticeable shift in rhetoric.
Earlier this month the global health agency had assessed the threat of bird flu to humans as 'low'. But the WHO says it may reconsider that status based on the latest update.
Dr Sylvie Briand, the WHO's director of epidemic and pandemic preparedness and prevention, told reporters in a virtual briefing that the agency was reviewing its global risk assessment in light of the recent developments.
She said: 'The global H5N1 situation is worrying given the wide spread of the virus in birds around the world and the increasing reports of cases in mammals including humans.'
Not only is bird flu spreading more easily and quickly through bird populations, but concerns have also been heightened in recent weeks as it emerged the virus had also begun to infect mammals, including minks, sea lions and foxes.
Two weeks ago, a paper published in the journal Eurosurveillance said that the virus found in the Spanish mink carried a mutation to the PB2 gene, which is not dissimilar to the mutation found when bird flu found its way into pigs over a decade ago.
The more the virus spreads between different animals, the more opportunity it has to mutate, meaning the recent cross-species transmission is more worrying and could be a warning sign of a more significant mutation.
But even the potential outbreak in Cambodia is unlikely to become an epidemic.
Only eight human cases have been spotted among people so far this outbreak, all of which were traced back to close contact with infected birds. 
There is nothing to be done that can prevent the spread among wild birds, but officials are working to keep domesticated populations away from them. 
Prior to the recent Cambodia cases, there have only been around 870 globally. 
In 1997, officials confirmed 18 H5N1 cases in Hong Kong, some of which were.

The fresh outbreak of bird flu cases in humans in Cambodia has lead to fears a new Covid-like pandemic could be on the horizon.

Scientists are yet to find any evidence that different variants are being transmitted between mammals.
Could it become the next pandemic? Time will tell.
Is there a vaccine/treatment?
There are animal vaccines for bird flu, but they are not used on a wide scale on bird farms because it lessens the ability to monitor outbreaks of the disease.
Plus, vaccinated birds can still contract the disease and transmit it. 
There are currently no vaccines developed for bird flu in humans, but this is only because there is no need for it yet.
In order to make an effective vaccine in humans, scientists would need to know the specific variant causing the human spread so the treatment could be tailored.
The WHO has sent samples of H5N1 viruses to vaccine manufacturers, but mass production will not happen until they know the strain.
However, there are some readily antiviral drugs that can treat severe flu, like oseltamivir.
Hopefully these would work on any pandemic bird flu virus, but viruses can become resistant.
The Centers for Disease Control & Prevention told DailyMail.com it was 'working closely with the Cambodian Ministry of Health and other public health partners during their investigations into these two human cases' in Cambodia.